(In response to a question --April 2002-- on what I think will happen during the most recent crisis.)
I don't know what will happen but this is what I would "hope"
(as optimistic as I can realistically be--pretty sad) would happen.
The Israelis occupy all the Palestinian lands (revealing the true ultimate aims of Ariel Sharron's contingent), inflame the world community
and make it impossible for the US to continue to back their occupation
policies.The region Arab countries show restraint from any stupid military
support but exercise whatever economic and political support they can.
Palestinian suicide attacks intensify and continue.That status quo continues
for a year or so until it becomes obvious that Israeli overwhelming military
superiority cannot guarantee their security as long as their nationhood is
based on injustices to the Palestinians.The US remains on the sidelines with
the Bush administration spewing forth whatever words they see as minimizing
the political fallout on their administration.After some time the recent
Arab proposal of 1967 boundaries with some division or power sharing of
Jerusalem and return of most Palestinian displaced Israeli refugees looks
better (ie. based in justice versus military might),and the US/Britain through the UN push that on the Israelis with US
"promises" to back security along with the Arab world "promise" to recognize
Israel right to exist with full normalization of relations.Of course there
is a Palestinian state with full sovereignty including the right of defense.
The greater Arab world including the larger Palestinian community force
groups like Hamas and Libya(appropriately recognizing their contributions) to accept the plan as a just compromise and
eventually root them out and the suicide attacks fade.Somehow moderates in
Israel gain power and "give it a try".THe US gives the traditional Israeli
aid of 3 billion $ a year to the new Palestinian state to rebuild.......and
after 20 years or so the Palestinians have too much to lose and very little
to gain ( same for Israel) to upset the applecart..about 20 years after that
we die...and the headlines read "New tensions in the MidEast"....but no
After writing above,I thought I might have been too pessimistic,but others more informed than I seem to be resonating along the same lines:
()Opinion of an American Jewish friend of mine (I did not ask his permission yet so name is withheld): Titled: Israel is a Terrorist State
Dear Mr. President,
Enough is enough. We see that all along, Sharon's aim is
to send Arafat into exile, smash the Palestinians, and
indefinitely delay any viable Palestinian state. As an
American Jew, I can tell you that Sharon is the true
terrorist and should be removed by us today. He has dedicated
his life to seizing all of the territories for a greater Isreal
and done everything possible to incite the Palestinians
to violence, so he would have an opportunity to crush
them. But this is an insane and impossible plan. For
the good of the world, the USG should put it's foot down
and stop Sharon. Remove him by whatever means necessary.
You won't lose my vote by going "against Israel". In fact,
US pressure is the only way to SAVE Israel. First thing
you should do is stop ALL aid the Israel. You could turn
over the money saved to the Palestinians (e.g. to be administered
by the UN). Your father had the guts to confront Israel
over the settlements. Now it's your turn to show leadership!!!
Regards, Dr "MMC"
()As Killing Mounts Who'll Blink First? (April 2002)